Thursday, May 22, 2008

IEA World Supply/ Demand Vs Nymex Crude Spot Price



regarding yesterdays post on New Jersey Real Estate Report

jafo Says:
italic;">On energy prices.

The producers blame the speculators. The investors blame demand and the dollar. The reg agencies say supply is fine, and are mum on the dollar. As dollar sinks further, they get on the demand band wagon. The refiners/distributors say they don’t set price and are only making a percent on the carry. Bottom line, all of these groups have a vested interest in one explanation of another.

Lets try to answer this in the near term - Putting aside longer term issues, as such dollar devaluation, peak oil, and global warming.

1.Was there an increase in demand porpotional to price increase, given the marginality of oil?

2.Was there at any time insufficient supply, before run up?

3.Did the rise in prices reduce demand, or even growth in demand?

4.Was the run in price, proportional to dollar slide against euro - given above factors?

5.What precentage of long interest are non-consumers or producers?

6.What percentage of consumer, distributor, and refiner purchases are stock piling to hedge against future increases vrs. near term needs?

The chart above (world crude supply/demand Vs Nymex Crude Spot) along with the previous chart ( US DOllar Index VS WTI Spot Price)should help to answer points 1 thought 4.

1.Was there an increase in demand porpotional to price increase, given the marginality of oil?

Yes

2.Was there at any time insufficient supply, before run up?

No

3.Did the rise in prices reduce demand, or even growth in demand?

No demand destruction is apparent yet, but more data is needed.

4.Was the run in price, proportional to dollar slide against euro - given above factors?

No, the price of oil increased noticeably faster then any changes in the dollar index.

1 comment:

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