Sunday, May 24, 2009

Wired Unemployment

Looks like some of my unemployment projections were picked up by Wired magazine!

Note a small nitpick, I am not a chemist, but a Chemical Engineer. Big difference.

Wired-o-Nomics: Why Is the Real Jobless Number So Elusive?

Nick Andrews is a chemist by day and recreational economist by weekend. He’s been crunching numbers on American economic indicators for years, and in March devised a method to compare current woes with those of previous eras. Andrews collected U3 unemployment data from the early 1900s to today, and then adjusted it for compatibility (methodology changed in 1948 and again in 1994). Starting in 1994, when U6 information was first collected the way it still is today, he found a constant relation of 1.77 between U3 and U6 figures. Using this relationship, Andrews analyzed overall unemployment (U6) from the Great Depression and from today.

Sunday, May 10, 2009

Refined Unemployment Projections

I took some time over the last few days to refine the projections from my last post. Note that unless the administrations most optimistic projections for the economy are correct, then we are already looking at a depression level event occurring as we have already passed the point of no return.

As always there are exceptions. In this case the government may be able to avoid the nastier consequences of the current economic crisis through economic policies that would have been unthinkable before now. Including congress allowing the FED to issue debt. This would allow the government to subordinate a portion of the national debt and default on it or heavily devalue it while still maintaining access to international credit markets by maintaining the integrity of its super senior debt class.

Refined Projections for Unemployment (update 1)

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

2009 Unemployment projections

projection is based on High and Low scenarios. Low scenarios assume an average of 500,000 jobs lost per month for 2009 and 2010, and the high scenario assumes an average of 700,000 jobs lost per month for 2009 and 2010.

this scenario replicates what happened to the unemployment rates in 1930 using the current unemployment situation. the growth rate in unemployment is based on the current rate continuing for another 1 - 1.5 years. In reality the chart would look bumpy, with a series of wave like upward movements

Unemployment projections 2009