Sunday, May 10, 2009

Refined Unemployment Projections

I took some time over the last few days to refine the projections from my last post. Note that unless the administrations most optimistic projections for the economy are correct, then we are already looking at a depression level event occurring as we have already passed the point of no return.

As always there are exceptions. In this case the government may be able to avoid the nastier consequences of the current economic crisis through economic policies that would have been unthinkable before now. Including congress allowing the FED to issue debt. This would allow the government to subordinate a portion of the national debt and default on it or heavily devalue it while still maintaining access to international credit markets by maintaining the integrity of its super senior debt class.

Refined Projections for Unemployment (update 1)

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